New Seat Details - Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Bognor Regis and Littlehampton been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	33,128	58.9%
LAB	14,031	25.0%
LIB	3,633	6.5%
MIN	2,087	3.7%
UKIP	2,050	3.6%
Green	1,269	2.3%
CON Majority	19,097	34.0%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton: Map

List of old seats forming part of Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

Old seat: Arundel and South Downs

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Arundel and South Downs, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Arundel and South Downs				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Arun	Angmering and Findon	7,003	Arundel and South Downs	3,464	1,301	519	192	221	0	0	0	5,697
Arun	Arundel and Walberton	6,240	Arundel and South Downs	3,486	1,003	266	178	137	0	0	0	5,070
Arun	Barnham	5,999	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	2,850	1,249	282	188	277	0	0	0	4,846
Arun	East Preston	831	Worthing West	429	128	33	23	15	0	0	0	628
Chichester	Bury	1,702	Arundel and South Downs	947	214	128	18	30	0	0	0	1,337
Chichester	Petworth	3,609	Arundel and South Downs	2,081	586	113	93	66	0	0	0	2,939
Chichester	Wisborough Green	1,913	Arundel and South Downs	1,026	297	107	23	78	0	0	0	1,531
Horsham	Bramber, Upper Beeding and Woodmancote	4,124	Arundel and South Downs	1,969	778	303	52	173	0	0	0	3,275
Horsham	Chanctonbury	6,506	Arundel and South Downs	3,498	855	319	148	108	0	0	0	4,928
Horsham	Chantry	7,615	Arundel and South Downs	3,760	1,323	460	187	275	0	0	0	6,005
Horsham	Cowfold, Shermanbury and West Grinstead	4,166	Arundel and South Downs	2,361	624	296	55	77	0	0	0	3,413
Horsham	Henfield	4,059	Arundel and South Downs	1,967	734	242	55	185	0	0	0	3,183
Horsham	Pulborough and Coldwaltham	4,993	Arundel and South Downs	2,375	893	225	137	180	0	0	0	3,810
Horsham	Steyning	4,786	Arundel and South Downs	2,189	1,001	397	58	212	0	0	0	3,857
Mid Sussex	Hassocks	6,123	Arundel and South Downs	2,363	1,414	619	135	219	0	0	0	4,750
Mid Sussex	Hurstpierpoint and Downs	5,725	Arundel and South Downs	2,807	1,292	474	126	288	0	0	0	4,987
	Total	75,394		37,572	13,692	4,783	1,668	2,541	0	0	0	60,256

The full details of these calculations are given on the Arundel and South Downs seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bognor Regis and Littlehampton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bognor Regis and Littlehampton				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Arun	Aldwick East	4,416	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,813	395	135	103	29	0	186	0	2,661
Arun	Aldwick West	4,972	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	2,212	557	203	124	36	0	80	0	3,212
Arun	Beach	3,674	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,501	546	277	56	41	0	87	0	2,508
Arun	Bersted	6,177	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	2,266	988	359	188	172	0	101	0	4,074
Arun	Brookfield	4,490	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,932	848	192	129	39	0	69	0	3,209
Arun	Courtwick with Toddington	5,579	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,964	1,465	293	155	54	0	159	0	4,090
Arun	Felpham East	4,566	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,880	436	177	103	31	0	60	0	2,687
Arun	Felpham West	4,111	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,709	389	160	94	29	0	71	0	2,452
Arun	Hotham	3,458	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,720	1,063	278	82	155	0	119	0	3,417
Arun	Marine	3,632	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,829	1,007	118	159	52	0	276	0	3,441
Arun	Middleton-on-Sea	4,130	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,843	438	166	103	29	0	74	0	2,653
Arun	Orchard	3,981	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,665	1,165	257	74	43	0	111	0	3,315
Arun	Pagham	4,927	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	2,091	553	201	126	33	0	87	0	3,091
Arun	Pevensey	3,624	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,320	1,017	97	61	37	0	214	0	2,746
Arun	River	6,192	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	2,334	1,370	330	183	177	0	318	0	4,712
Arun	Yapton	4,261	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	2,199	545	108	122	35	0	75	0	3,084
	Total	72,190		30,278	12,782	3,351	1,862	992	0	2,087	0	51,352

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bognor Regis and Littlehampton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
Arun	Aldwick East	3,929	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,813	395	135	103	29	0	186	0	2,661
Arun	Aldwick West	4,744	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	2,212	557	203	124	36	0	80	0	3,212
Arun	Barnham	6,495	Arundel and South Downs	2,850	1,249	282	188	277	0	0	0	4,846
Arun	Beach	3,703	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,501	546	277	56	41	0	87	0	2,508
Arun	Bersted	6,016	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	2,266	988	359	188	172	0	101	0	4,074
Arun	Brookfield	4,739	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,932	848	192	129	39	0	69	0	3,209
Arun	Courtwick with Toddington	6,041	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,964	1,465	293	155	54	0	159	0	4,090
Arun	Felpham East	3,969	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,880	436	177	103	31	0	60	0	2,687
Arun	Felpham West	3,620	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,709	389	160	94	29	0	71	0	2,452
Arun	Hotham	5,044	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,720	1,063	278	82	155	0	119	0	3,417
Arun	Marine	5,080	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,829	1,007	118	159	52	0	276	0	3,441
Arun	Middleton-on-Sea	3,917	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,843	438	166	103	29	0	74	0	2,653
Arun	Orchard	4,895	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,665	1,165	257	74	43	0	111	0	3,315
Arun	Pagham	4,565	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	2,091	553	201	126	33	0	87	0	3,091
Arun	Pevensey	4,055	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	1,320	1,017	97	61	37	0	214	0	2,746
Arun	River	6,956	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	2,334	1,370	330	183	177	0	318	0	4,712
Arun	Yapton	4,554	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	2,199	545	108	122	35	0	75	0	3,084
	Total	82,322		33,128	14,031	3,633	2,050	1,269	0	2,087	0	56,198

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Bognor Regis and Littlehampton. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Nick Gibb (CON)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	82,322
Turnout:	68.3%

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton: Overview

Introduction